We polled in twelve House races between Saturday, 10/27 and Monday, 10/29:
- 12 districts Trump won by between 8 and 27 points
- Mostly districts in the Midwest (IA, IN, KS, MI, OH, WI), plus one each in CO, FL, NY
- Districts Trump won by an average of 16+ points.
We're going to share numbers from all twelve.
We start with races that are a little more R than the 2016 presidential vote
Then races (just one) exactly in line with 2016
Then races that are looking a little better for Dems
Then races that are looking a LOT better for Dems
Scott Tipton (R) 53
Diane Mitsch (@RepDMB) (D) 38
Movement: 3 points to R (was Trump+12)
CO-03 is one of two districts we polled where the Republican candidate is doing better than Donald Trump did in 2016.